Netweather.TV has issued a Severe convective storms forecast
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Storm & Convective Forecast
Issued 2014-10-07 22:17:32
Valid: 08/10/2014 0000z to 09/10/2014 0000z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST
Deep upper low and collocated surface low will move slowly NE from the Atlantic across SW Ireland on Wednesday. Ahead of the low will be a deeply cyclonic and unstable S to SWly flow across the UK, with troughs embedded in the flow.
… EIRE/N IRELAND, ENGLAND AND WALES …
Low pressure arriving across Ireland will pull in relatively warmer and moister air from the south across Ireland, England and Wales during Wednesday, A shortwave trough looks to arrive across S England by 0600z, moving NE across England and Wales during the morning. This trough will create forced ascent of the increasingly moist airmass supporting clusters/bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms to move N and NE. Further bands of showers storms are likely to follow across southern and western areas, as occluded front wrapping around low arriving over Ireland moves in and minor troughs move NE further east.
Strong SWly jet streak lifts north across Sern England on Wednesday, which, combined with winds backing S or SEly towards the surface, will create strong vertical wind shear. GFS indicates 50-60knts 0-6km shear and 25-30knts 0-1km shear, which will support organised storms, possibly with mesocyclones capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts and even a tornado or two – especially given low LCLs (Lifted Condensation Level). The tornado risk enhanced across SE England and E Anglia in the afternoon, as very dry air descends into the mid-levels (500mb) which will increase potential instability – though a tornado can’t be ruled out anywhere across southern England and Wales.
Besides the slight severe risk, any storms will be capable of producing torrential rain leading to localised flooding and deep surface water on roads, hail and gusty winds.
Issued by: Nick Finnis